About

In Bayesian Watch I provide techniques and examples of a Bayesian approach to argument analysis. The techniques are generic, incorporating ideas from critical thinking, informal logic, pragmatics, etc., commonly informed by ideas of Bayesian analysis and inference. The examples will be specific and will reflect my own interests, ranging from scientific method and statistics to politics and beyond. The examples will be for illustration, so that abstract ideas about argument analysis can be seen in live settings. But they will also often be meant to expose argumentative abuses, including many fallacies committed by our political leaders. For an introduction to Bayesian argument analysis, see a version of my paper Bayesian informal logic, published in Informal Logic.

The blog Bayesians without Borders (to which I contribute) explains what Bayesianism is and how it works, especially with respect to Bayesian network technology. For an illustration of Bayesian reasoning applied to argumentation you can look at my analysis of the Sally Clark case there.

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